Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
